Italy’s population stopped falling in 2025. After twelve consecutive years of decline, the resident population held almost exactly level, at 58,943,000 on 1 January 2026. The change over the year was 636 people.
That stability is entirely the product of migration. Italy’s population decline continued underneath it, at a scale the headline figure conceals. Births fell to 355,000 while deaths reached 652,000, producing a natural shortfall of roughly 296,000 people. Net international migration came to 296,000, which covered the gap almost to the thousand.
This page sets out the current figures on Italy’s population decline, the official projections, and what both mean in practice. All data comes from Istat, the Italian National Institute of Statistics, unless otherwise stated.
Last reviewed: August 2026. Primary source: Istat, Demographic Indicators, Year 2025, published 31 March 2026. Figures for 2025 are provisional.
Key figures at a glance
- Resident population: 58,943,000 on 1 January 2026, down 636 on the year
- Births: 355,000 in 2025, a record low and the seventeenth consecutive annual decline
- Deaths: 652,000 in 2025, down 0.2% on 2024
- Natural balance: approximately minus 296,000, compared with minus 283,000 in 2024
- Net migration: plus 296,000, from 440,000 arrivals and 144,000 departures
- Fertility rate: 1.14 children per woman, against the 2.1 required for replacement
- Population aged 65 and over: 14,821,000, or 25.1% of the total
- Median projection for 2050: 54.7 million residents
What is Italy’s population in 2026?
Italy’s resident population is 58,943,000 as of 1 January 2026, according to provisional Istat data. That figure is 636 lower than a year earlier, which Istat describes as substantially unchanged.
The composition shifted more than the total. The foreign resident population rose by 188,000 to 5,560,000. The population holding Italian citizenship fell by 189,000 to 53,383,000. Both movements are largely explained by the same two forces: a natural balance among Italian citizens of minus 333,000, and 196,000 grants of Italian citizenship during the year, which move people from one category to the other without anyone crossing a border.
| Indicator | 1 January 2026 | Change on year |
|---|---|---|
| Total resident population | 58,943,000 | minus 636 |
| Italian citizens | 53,383,000 | minus 189,000 |
| Foreign citizens | 5,560,000 | plus 188,000 |
| Aged 15 to 64 | 37,270,000 | minus 73,000 |
| Aged 65 and over | 14,821,000 | plus 240,000 |
| Aged 85 and over | 2,511,000 | plus 101,000 |
| Mean age | 47.1 years | plus 6 months |
Why is Italy’s population declining?
Italy’s population is declining because deaths have exceeded births in every year since 1993 except one, and the gap has widened as the number of women of childbearing age has fallen. In 2025 there were roughly 1.8 deaths for every birth. The single exception was 2006, the last year in which births and deaths came close to balancing.
The fertility rate reached 1.14 children per woman in 2025, down from 1.18 in 2024. The previous record low was 1.19, set in 1995. Italy has not reached the replacement rate of 2.1 since 1976, which means the shortfall has been compounding across two generations. Each smaller cohort of women produces a smaller cohort after it, regardless of what happens to the fertility rate itself.
Istat’s projections quantify that mechanism directly. The number of women aged 15 to 49 was 11.5 million in 2024. Under the median scenario it falls to 9.1 million by 2050 and 7.6 million by 2080. Births would continue to fall even if fertility recovered.
Life expectancy is the other half of the equation. Italian life expectancy reached 81.7 years for men and 85.7 years for women in 2025. On Eurostat’s 2024 comparison, the most recent available, Italian men ranked second in the EU at 81.5 years against an EU27 average of 79.2, and Italian women ranked third at 85.6 against an average of 84.4. A population that lives longer and has fewer children ages from both ends at once.
How many births were there in Italy in 2025?
There were 355,000 births in Italy in 2025, the lowest annual figure since Italian unification in 1861 and the seventeenth consecutive year of decline. Births fell 3.9% on 2024.
The birth rate stands at 6.0 per thousand residents, against 6.3 in 2024 and 9.5 in 2005. Births to foreign citizens totaled 48,000, or 13.5% of the total, itself down 5.6% on the previous year.
Fertility fell across every part of the country. The Centre now records the lowest rate at 1.07 children per woman, followed by the North at 1.15 and the South at 1.16. The South’s historical fertility advantage has effectively closed.
Is Italy’s population still falling?
The total is not falling at present, but the underlying trend is. Italy’s population held level in 2025 only because net migration of 296,000 offset a natural shortfall of the same size. Istat’s assessment is that only strongly positive net migration can compensate for negative natural change, and that without sustained inflows the decline resumes.
The distinction matters for reading the headline. Between 2014 and 2024 Italy lost close to 1.9 million residents, more than the population of Milan. The 2025 result interrupts that sequence. It does not reverse the mechanism that produced it.
| Year | Births | Deaths | Natural balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 404,000 | 746,000 | minus 342,000 |
| 2021 | 400,000 | 709,000 | minus 309,000 |
| 2022 | 393,000 | 713,000 | minus 320,000 |
| 2023 | 379,000 | 661,000 | minus 282,000 |
| 2024 | 370,000 | 653,000 | minus 283,000 |
| 2025 | 355,000 | 652,000 | minus 296,000 |
Note that the 2025 natural balance, while the widest since 2022, is not a record. The pandemic years produced larger shortfalls through elevated mortality, and the 2020 figure of minus 342,000 was the worst since 1918. What is different now is that the gap is widening through falling births rather than rising deaths.
What are Italy’s population projections to 2050 and 2080?
Under Istat’s median scenario, published in July 2025 with a base date of 1 January 2024, Italy’s population falls to 58.5 million by 2030, 54.7 million by 2050, and 45.8 million by 2080. That final figure represents a loss of 13.1 million residents from the base year.
Projections carry uncertainty that grows with the horizon, and Istat publishes the range rather than a single number. The 90% confidence interval for 2050 spans 52.5 million to 56.8 million. Across the full period, the most favorable scenario produces a loss of 6.2 million by 2080, while the most severe produces a loss of 20.0 million.
| Year | Median projection | Change from 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 58.5 million | minus 0.5 million |
| 2050 | 54.7 million | minus 4.3 million |
| 2080 | 45.8 million | minus 13.1 million |
The age structure changes more sharply than the total. By 2050 the share of the population aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 24.3% to 34.6%, while the working-age group falls from 63.5% to 54.3%, or from 37.4 million people to 29.7 million. The ratio of working-age to non-working-age residents moves from roughly three to two today toward roughly one to one.
Household composition shifts alongside it. Measured from the 2024 base date, single-person households are projected to rise from 36.8% to 41.1% of the total by 2050, while couples with children fall from 28.6% to 21.4%.
Which parts of Italy are growing and which are shrinking?
The North is growing, the Centre is flat, and the South is shrinking. In 2025 the North recorded population growth of 2.2 per thousand residents, the Centre was unchanged at 0.0, and the Mezzogiorno declined by 3.1 per thousand.
That divergence widens in the projections. Istat states that depopulation affects the whole country but is more pronounced in the South than in the Centre and North, with the North expected to hold roughly flat in the short term. The North is supported by both international arrivals and internal migration of younger southern Italians toward northern employment. Regional projection figures are published separately through IstatData and the Demo platform.
For anyone assessing where in Italy to base themselves, this is the single most useful line in the data. National figures average across regions that are moving in opposite directions.
What is Italy doing about it?
Italy has responded principally by expanding legal migration channels. In October 2025 the government approved a flows decree covering 2026 to 2028, authorizing 497,550 work entries for non-EU nationals, split as 164,850 in 2026, 165,850 in 2027 and 166,850 in 2028. It is the second substantial expansion of legal entry quotas in three years.
The flows decree is labor policy. Its quotas are set against shortages reported by employers in agriculture, tourism, care work, construction and skilled trades, and the self-employment allocation within it is small.
Separate routes exist for those entering on other grounds. The Investor Visa, introduced under Law 232/2016, sits outside the flows decree quota system, so applications are accepted year-round rather than within an annual cap. Its four qualifying routes run from €250,000 into an Italian innovative startup to €2,000,000 into government bonds.
Pro-natalist measures have run alongside these for several years, including the assegno unico universal child allowance. Births have continued to fall throughout, which is consistent with the international evidence that financial incentives have modest effects on fertility.
What does this mean in practice?
Three things follow from the data with reasonable confidence.
The first is that Italy’s population decline translates into labor market pressure that is structural rather than cyclical. A working-age population falling by 73,000 a year, projected to shed 7.7 million people by 2050, creates shortages that no economic cycle resolves.
The second is that legal migration policy has a strong structural driver behind it. Whatever position any given government takes on irregular arrivals, the arithmetic pushing toward expanded legal channels does not depend on which party holds office.
The third concerns regional choice. Someone weighing where in Italy to spend time is choosing between a North with demographic momentum and a South already losing population at 3.1 per thousand a year, which has consequences for services, property markets and local economies that national averages hide.
For readers assessing Italian residency specifically, the relevant practical detail is that a residence permit removes the 90 day Schengen limit on time in Italy, and that permit holders spending significant time in the country should expect to become Italian tax resident.
Frequently asked questions
What is the population of Italy in 2026?
Italy’s resident population is 58,943,000 as of 1 January 2026, according to provisional figures from Istat. This is 636 fewer people than a year earlier, which Istat characterizes as substantially unchanged after twelve years of decline.
Why did Italy’s population stop falling?
Net international migration of 296,000 in 2025 offset a natural shortfall of approximately 296,000. Arrivals from abroad totaled 440,000 and departures 144,000. Without that net inflow, the population would have fallen by close to 300,000.
What is Italy’s fertility rate?
Italy’s total fertility rate was 1.14 children per woman in 2025, down from 1.18 in 2024 and below the previous record low of 1.19 set in 1995. The replacement rate is 2.1. Italy last reached replacement level in 1976.
How old is Italy’s population?
The mean age is 47.1 years as of 1 January 2026, six months higher than a year earlier. Residents aged 65 and over number 14,821,000, or 25.1% of the population. On Eurostat’s comparison at 1 January 2025, Italy had the highest share of over-65s and the lowest share of under-15s in the EU27.
What will Italy’s population be in 2050?
Istat’s median projection is 54.7 million residents in 2050, a loss of about 4.3 million from the 2024 base. The 90% confidence interval runs from 52.5 million to 56.8 million, so the projection should be read as a range rather than a point estimate.
Is Italy encouraging immigration?
Italy has expanded legal entry quotas substantially. The flows decree approved in October 2025 authorizes 497,550 work entries for non-EU nationals across 2026 to 2028. Separate routes, including the Investor Visa, operate outside that quota system entirely.
Sources
- Istat, Demographic Indicators, Year 2025, published 31 March 2026. istat.it
- Istat, Population and Household Projections, Base 1/1/2024, published July 2025. istat.it
- Istat, Demographic Indicators, Year 2024, published 31 March 2025. istat.it
- Eurostat, population and demography statistics. ec.europa.eu
- Decree of the President of the Council of Ministers of 2 October 2025, published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale on 15 October 2025.
Questions about Italian residency in light of these trends can be directed to us here. Further reading on living in Italy as a resident and on current residency requirements.